The Marathon Wall
Experiment-Driven MCMC Simulation (10,000 Runners per run)
Simulation Controls
Run Experiment
Wall Probability
0.15
Wall Impact (min/mi)
+2.5
Mean Wall Mile
Mile 20.0
Base Pace (min/mi)
8.5
Runner Trajectory
0
5
10
15
20
26.2
1h 40m
3h 20m
5h 0m
6h 40m
Distance (Miles)
Cumulative Time
Finish Time Distribution
3
5
8
10
2h
3h
4h
5h
6h
7h
8h
Finish Time
Number of Runners